Always do your own research.
Borrowed conviction is exit liquidity — the whales’ castoffs beat their picks by 7 points. Receipts
Mentality
Rules earned from receipts, not motivational wallpaper. Read these before taking risk.
How much is your thinking already priced in?
If the story has a date and a crowd, the move already happened. Ask what you know that the price doesn’t. HIMS, −11%
Thesis diligence
A thesis must earn its chips.
Before putting capital behind a story, do FIGR-level work: read the filings, map the catalyst, price the scenarios, script the exit, and define what proves you wrong. FIGR, end to end
Patience
You will not buy the bottom or sell the top.
For thesis positions, build and exit in tranches instead of chasing perfect timing. The exception is momentum: when the trigger fails or the tape breaks, act—momentum does not reward patience.
Trade classification
Know the difference between a momentum play, a narrative play, and gambling.
Name the game before placing the trade. Different games demand different evidence, time horizons, and exits.
- MomentumPrice, volume, and relative strength are the edge. Use a defined trigger, stop, and short timebox.
- NarrativeA falsifiable thesis and dated catalyst are the edge. Size for uncertainty and exit when the evidence breaks.
- GamblingNo measurable edge, no invalidation, or risk sized around hope. If you cannot state what proves you wrong, do not call it a trade.
Don’t chase.
You will miss plenty of shots. Let them go. There will always be another setup, and protecting your capital and patience keeps you ready for it.
Health is wealth.
Take care of your body and mind. Sleep, movement, food, and time away from the screen are part of the system—they let you lock in and play the game well.
Risk management
Hold on to your winners. Cut losers fast.
Give strength room to keep working and give weakness less time to prove you wrong. Small losses keep you in the game; big winners pay for the misses.
Tactical learnings
Small execution mistakes with expensive receipts.
Options · MDB
Make sure the contract reaches the catalyst.
MDB was moving our way, but the August 28 calls expired four days before September 1 earnings. Confirm the date at company IR, buy enough time past the event, and judge exits on executable quotes—not a flattering midpoint.
Read the trade learning →